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By Brennen H. J.

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5 Bonn felt that the 1990 reunification of Germany and the Potsdam agreement of 1945 that had dictated the rules of engagement for four-and-a-half decades in Europe had broken down. The rules of the game that evolved in accordance with the Yalta and Potsdam agreements following the Second World War divided Europe into spheres of influence among Great Britain, the Soviet Union, and the United States. Under the Potsdam Agreement, the former German territories lying east of the Rivers Oder and Neisse came under Polish sovereignty.

The perception that prior history is current destiny is an unmotivated bias: actors see now what they expect to see from historical events. On the historical front, there is the “ancient ethnic hatreds” school of thought. It dominated the foreign ministries in the Western capitals. American and European diplomats misunderstood Bosnia’s past. They assumed that ancient ethnic hatreds were the underlying causes of conflict in Bosnia during the 1990s. But, in fact, ethnic groups in Yugoslavia had lived together peacefully in the past.

Misperception of threat can produce an overestimation or underestimation of danger. Prior to World War I, actors overestimated threats. Prior to World War II, they underestimated threats. An unintended spiraling of events characterized the First World War. A failure to deter characterized the Second World War. During 1939, a dominant alliance failed to coalesce in order to deter Nazi aggression. Rather than the runaway escalation of hostility experienced in 1914, a failure to deter and coerce set the scene for Nazi aggression against its neighbors.

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